The NBA Playoffs: Day One

     You may have already read today's sports section, but I haven't, so I am going to give my perspective on yesterday's NBA playoff action and a little preview on today's. The playoffs began with an Eastern Conference game that takes the backseat to the Western Conference, at least until Boston faces Detroit in the Conference finals, according to most sport analysts.  But before anyone lays money down on that potential match up, don't count out the Cavaliers.  In a word, Lebron.  At 6'8 and 240, the game has never seen a player so big, athletic, and ferocious as the King. Kobe may be the best player in the NBA, but Lebron may be taking his rightful place at the throne sooner than some think. Despite playing with fairly mediocre talent around him, he has the ability to take over a game in an instant, and yesterday was no exception.  So don't count them out of anything.

     Now the Western Conference.  Beginning with Phoenix, I will argue that if Phoenix does not go to the finals, which I don't believe they will, it is time for Mike D'Antoni to go.  Why acquire Shaquille O'Neal for the purpose of strengthening the middle and opening up the floor for others, only to pull him in the crucial minutes of regulation?  When Spurs Coach Greg Poppovich went to 'hack-a-shack' with six minutes to go in the game and down by roughly seven points, D'Antoni sat Shaq after two missed free throws.  Scoring was not Phoenix's issue, it was defense.  They got Shaq primarily for that reason.  People in Afghanistan know he can't shoot free throws, it is the deal with the devil you make.  Once Shaq went out, Duncan and company attacked the paint and within a blink of an eye they were leading.  When Shaq was reinserted, the Suns faired better, but the momentum had shifted.  Playoffs are about runs, and most importantly, fourth quarter runs.  D'Antoni blew it.  He also blew it again in the first overtime, Amare Stoudemire was no help either, but the Phoenix coach had a chance to put Mano Ginobili on the line with six seconds to play and a three point lead.  Shaq had a chance to potentially foul him, he was caught playing off of Duncan protecting the lane, but with five fouls and no order to foul, he choose not to.  It would have better to have fouled out and maintained a one point lead with six seconds and the ball than to allow what happened -- an open three point shot to send it to overtime and it did.  Sorry Suns, but this series may have been decided with yesterday's game.  

     Now I finally get to express why the Jason Kidd, Devon Harris trade was doomed.  Forget that Harris just got his driver's license and has fifteen years in the league ahead of him and Kidd is closer to an AARP membership than most assistant coaches, it was the wrong move.  If winning a championship is what motivated the move, which it surely was, then what was necessary to look at is what does Jason Kidd bring that you need.  He brings poise and leadership, end of story.  Harris is quicker, which helps on both ends of the court, he can get to the basket and score, and most importantly, he opens the court up for his teammates.  Kidd is not a scorer, so teams do not fear him lighting them up, nor do they worry he will break down defenses.  The Harris/Nowitzki tandem was in the top two for scoring duo's (PG and PF) in the league.  Nowitzki is a jump shooter, an amazing one, but that's it.  He isolates as well as anyone in the league and gets his shot off.  He is not dependent on screen and rolls or a ton of picks.  At 7'0, he is easy to get the ball to.  What Harris gave them was a point guard that helped create space by breaking down the defense and thereby opening the floor for Dirk.  Jason Kidd can really only pass it to him, that's it.  It was a dumb and desperate move and the inexperienced Hornets are going to send Dallas home in the first round for the second year in a row.

    My Vincent Price team in this year's playoffs are the Utah Jazz, because they are the scariest team.  They are virtually unbeatable at home and all it takes for them to win a series that they don't have home court advantage in is to win one on the road and that is exactly what they did yesterday.  Houston will be done in five games and McGrady will continue to be winless in the post season.  Utah can start looking ahead, even though we know they won't, to the Lakers.  Assuming the Lakers win, which they will, more on them in a minute.  Utah has an excellent chance of beating the Lakers, particularly if Andrew Bynum doesn't return, or even if he does and is not up to speed.  Why? They have an amazing big point guard, Deron Williams and Center Mehmet Okur.  Did you have to read that twice? Yes, Okur. Because Okur can pull up and hit the three, Pau Gasol will have to guard him outside, which in theory, if Deron does his job and breaks down the Lakers defense, it will open up the middle, which is where the Lakers are vulnerable.  Even if help comes, which sometimes it does not, with Gasol up top, Boozer and the wiry Kirilenko will have a much easier time of getting second chance shots.  I think this will be a very exciting match up if it Okur's.

    Finally, the Lakers.  They will come out today fresh, hungry and with purpose.  I don't think Denver has the fortitude to beat the Lakers in a seven games series, not even in a five game, so I am not that worried.  I expect the bench of the Lakers will come up big and look for Sasha Vujacic, who could get under the skin of an armadillo, to goad Allen Iverson into a technical foul in one of the first two games.  Another reason why Denver won't beat the Lakers is A.I.  He is a great athlete but he doesn't make his teammates better, never has and never will.  He shoots a lot and his field goal percentage is one of the worst in the history of the game for someone with his scoring average.  He isn't known for his passing and neither is Carmelo Anthony.  Two great players but not great complimentary games.  If Denver wants to get past the first round next year, look for them to find a point guard and a player with the mental toughness to lead a disparate group.

    As far as the other games go, Detroit will not have a cake walk through the playoffs on their way to a supposed conference finals with Boston and look for that trouble to start today. Toronto and Orlando is a who's who for fourth place and Boston is the team everyone should fear, including the entire Western Conference. They play defense and the NBA playoffs are about fourth quarter runs and who plays the best half court game on both ends down the stretch. So far this year they are consistent on both ends.  Time will tell.   

     

Ben Howland and the 'Finale Four'

Ben Howland has now coached the UCLA Bruins to three straight final fours and has experienced the exact same outcome every year.  Both Florida teams of 2006 and 2007 were longer, more athletic and most importantly, were able to take away Howland's stiffling half court defense.  This years Memphis Tigers did the same thing.  How did they both do it? Florida had big enough players to see over the double team and move the ball quickly.   They had bigger, faster guards that could get into the paint easily, and they prevented the UCLA frontcourt from executing its offense.  Florida's punishing half court game was replaced in '08 by Memphis's uptempo transition style, that overwhelmed the Bruins, evidenced by the Tigers staggering fast break point advantage. 

     Defensively, the teams were very similar, which begs the question, why did Coach Howland play the same style of basketball all three years? Surely he knew the Florida team he faced in 2007 was eerily similar to the team a year before. We must assume he watched enough footage of Memphis in the tournament to know what they were going to bring.  So why play a slow down, dribble until the clock almost runs out offense? Perhaps because he choose philosophy over better judgement. What does that mean?  Howland's philosophy has been consistent since day one - everyone plays defense every second they are on the floor and then work the clock on offense. It's the latter that is problematic. The Bruins have very few set plays, so an expiring clock often leads to an improvised shot, not a reliable one.  The Bruins have had very shaky outside shooting; Josh Shipp, one of this years goats, was unable to open up the floor for the rest of the players.  And lastly, point guard, Darren Collison, the frontcourt goat the last two years, dribbles endlessly and fails to get the ball into the post. By holding to the philosophy of working the clock down, (that reasoning remains unclear), Coach Howland eschewed better judgement by insisting his team stick to his style over a better game plan that might have given them a shot at victory. That plan should have entailed running and creating scoring opportunities whenever possible. The Bruins have had amazing athletes and rarely do they run the floor or utilize the bench to their advantage. It most certainly should have included moving the ball around and working for the best shot, even if that meant shooting with twenty seconds to go on the clock.  This year, more than any other, it should have included getting the ball into the post, where Kevin Love was virtually unstoppable.

     Does Coach Howland know how to teach and make set plays?  Does he know how to create space for his shooters so they can get open looks coming off screens?  Does he know how to teach his kids an entry pass?  It's hard to believe he doesn't.  But all year the Bruins escaped by the skin of their teeth against lesser teams and programs.  In the end, his philosophy lost out to an NCAA tournament that is several cuts above the Pac 10 and Howland's extremely weak non conference schedule.  So unless Coach Howland changes his philosophy, despite the incredible achievement of three consecutive 30 win seasons and three final four appearances in a row, come next March he is probably looking at 120-plus wins, four final fours, and still no banner to hang in Pauley Pavilion. 

Why I started this blog

I probably should have written this before I wrote my first entry, but I think I needed to see if I would really do this.  So a few hours ago I picked something to write about, nothing controversial, but something I have given some thought to lately.  I plan on writing about sports topics because I am a passionate Los Angeles sports fan and the view from which I see things is rarely covered by any sports journalist out there.  I plan on spending more time writing about LA sports initially, but I would like to expand that to sports topics and themes outside the Los Angeles area.  I hope you enjoy the pieces.  Thanks, 

Joshua Stern